EBRD predicts 7% growth for Greek economy in 2021


The Hellenic Parliament in Athens. Photo © Maria Theofanopoulou

the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts 7 percent growth for the greek economy in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022, in its latest regional economic outlook report released on Thursday.

Globally, the EBRD raised its growth estimate for the 37 countries in its region, forecasting a sharp rebound in the first half of the year that will take regional growth to 5.5% in 2021, but warned that rising energy costs and slowdown Covid-19 advances in immunization hampered future prospects.

The report also found that among its regions, the economies of the southeastern EU and the Western Balkans had the fastest growth rates in 2021 and the largest upward revisions since the June forecast.

Looking for 2022, the EBRD predicts that Greece’s GDP will grow by 3.9% as the country recovers and major infrastructure projects advance.

Analysts in the report warn, however, that significant downside risks remain, including the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on tourism and other services.

According to the EBRD, the Greek economy is on track for a strong rebound after declining 9% in 2020. GDP in the first quarter of 2021 grew 4.5% on a quarterly basis and 3.4% on a quarterly basis. second trimester.

Growth was largely motivated by the tourism sector, Who worked better than expected in 2021 but remains well below the record levels of 2019.

Meanwhile, Greece’s fiscal policy, the EBRD said, is expected to remain focused on tackling the Covid crisis, with a deficit likely to exceed 7% of GDP for the second year in a row.

The key to growth is the effective implementation of EU stimulus funds and NSRF resources (ESPA), the EBRD said.

“The rapid growth of the economy so far in 2021 is a very positive sign and it is encouraging to see the focus on the green and digital agenda in the Greek stimulus package, which positively predisposes to future development. sustainable “, said Peter Sanfey, Deputy Director for Economics and Country Policy, EBRD Department of Economics, Politics and Governance.

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